Mayor Bill de Blasio doubled down on his intent to close nonessential businesses and indoor dining in hotspot ZIP codes in Brooklyn and Queens, aggressive measures he says have been necessitated by virus rates that continue to spiral. He also added a 13th ZIP code to the watchlist Tuesday as the clusters spread.
"The facts on the ground are clear. We need restrictions to stop this problem," de Blasio said in his daily briefing. "If we all do what's right as we did before, we keep moving forward. If we do it wrong, it endangers the whole city."
De Blasio acknowledged the state has the final call on any shutdowns and said he expected a firm answer at some point Tuesday. Barring any alternative, he said the city would be ready to move ahead as scheduled with enforcing the shutdowns Wednesday morning. Asked point-blank what he'd do if Gov. Andrew Cuomo's office did not give him the OK before then, he indicated he'd have to wait.
Cuomo is expected to address the shutdown at a news briefing Tuesday afternoon.
While the governor ordered public and private schools in the nine hotspot ZIP codes closed as of Tuesday, and put religious institutions on notice, he hedged on more expansive restrictions Monday, saying congregate settings were top priority.
Cuomo didn't take a more encompassing shutdown off the table, though -- and de Blasio on Tuesday reiterated his readiness to move forward the following day with closing nonessential businesses in the hotspot ZIP codes. Six of the nine saw day-over-day increases in positivity rates, the mayor said.
He described the shutdowns Tuesday as a "necessary rewind" to prevent a potential second wave from overspreading the entire city like the first one did this spring. In an interview with NY1 the night before, de Blasio said he had been hopeful outreach and enforcement efforts would work as they did in some other neighborhoods in August and September. They have failed in this case, he said.
The nine hotspots are accounting for a quarter of new COVID cases citywide over the last two weeks, despite representing just 7.4 percent of the population. The clusters have already begun to expand to nearby neighborhoods; two of the now 13 ZIP codes on the watchlist are on the brink of the shutdown threshold. South Williamsburg (11206) became the latest addition to the watchlist Tuesday.
The initial slate of governor-ordered school closures targeted nine ZIP codes where the COVID positivity rate has topped 3 percent over a seven-day rolling period. Many of the ZIP codes have been well above that threshold for some time.
While some of the watchlist ZIPs have yet to see a single day with positivity rates of 3 percent or higher, two have seen six straight days of that as of Tuesday, meaning new shutdowns could come by Wednesday if the trend continues.
How long could this new round of restrictions last? There's no definitive timetable. De Blasio had proposed either a two-week or a four-week shutdown. Cuomo says the state is evaluating criteria for reopening; no timeline has been established.
Right now, the restrictions apply only to hotspot ZIP codes in Southern Brooklyn, Far Rockaway and Central Queens. Cuomo said Rockland and Orange counties could see similar measures at some point if their high infection rates persist, but for now said those counties "don't have the same level of problem" as the city.
Daily Percentage of Positive Tests by New York Region
With all of New York state in some phase of reopening, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is shifting his focus to monitoring test results on a daily basis across each region to identify potential hotspots before they emerge. Here's the latest tracking data by region. For the latest county-level results statewide, click here
Source: ny.gov
The clusters have most certainly become a problem -- one that becomes more apparent with each passing day, as the health indicators show. The city's daily average COVID caseload has ticked up steadily over the course of the week and topped 500 for the first time Tuesday after averaging about half that for quite some time. Emergency departments citywide are seeing a slight uptick in visits for COVID-like illnesses over the last week, the health department said.
Health officials declined to identify specific hospitals seeing ER visits rise, though said in a statement, "With COVID19, increases in hospital visits generally follow an increase in cases. Data show we are starting to see an uptick in the number of hospitalized patients in two hospitals in Brooklyn and at least one in Queens."
The city's seven-day rolling positivity rate is also up. It hit 1.65 percent Tuesday and is inching closer and closer to 2 percent, which is de Blasio's threshold for shuttering indoor dining across all five boroughs.
Statewide, New York's infection rate remains relatively low though is ticking up, hitting 1.4 percent Tuesday. The seven-day rolling positivity rate remains at 1 percent, though will likely increase in the coming days -- a hard turn just weeks after the state came off a 38-day stretch with daily infection rates below 1 percent. Hospitalizations hit their highest number Tuesday since July 22 (705).
Even without the clusters, Cuomo has said he doesn't believe that 1 percent infection rate, one of the lowest in the United States, is sustainable through fall. Fall means chillier weather and more indoor activities. It means flu season. It means schools -- if they can manage to safely stay open.
In Orange County, the health commissioner issued an order Monday mandating the closure of all public, private and religious schools if the seven-day rolling positivity rate exceeds 9 percent in a given area. As of the state's last update, one ZIP code in the county (10950) had far exceeded that metric already.
At the same time, COVID cases around the country and the world don't appear to be on the decline either. President Donald Trump and many in his inner circle have now been diagnosed with the novel coronavirus. The World Health Organization estimates up to 1 in 10 people worldwide may have had COVID-19 at some point, which is more than 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases.
Travel is a continued threat to the tri-state area's progress, even as New York and New Jersey grapple with concerning upticks anew at home. The quarantine order Cuomo, Gov. Phil Murphy and Gov. Ned Lamont jointly implemented in late June remains in effect, requiring travelers from U.S. hotspots to isolate for 14 days before entering the tri-state area. Travelers must also fill out contact tracing forms; the order applies to local residents who have visited hotspots as well.
The number of U.S. states and territories from which travelers arriving to the tri-state area must quarantine for 14 days stands at 34. It will be updated Tuesday, but for now, the quarantine order covers Alaska, Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Iowa, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming and Wisconsin.